Week 5 Plays

Thursday, September 25th:
Giants/Redskins OVER 45 -107 (2*) W
#107 UCLA -3 -110 (2*) W

Friday, September 26th:
PASS

Saturday, September 27th:
#117 Maryland +4 -110 (2*) W
#117 Maryland/Indiana OVER 69.5 -110 (2*) L
#124 Virginia -27.5 -109 (2*) W
#125 Western Michigan +21 -110 (2*) W
#142 Louisville -21 -105 (2*) L
#153 Bowling Green/Massachusetts OVER 68.5 -110 (2*) W
#160 Southern Miss +8 -110 (3*) L
#166 Syracuse +9.5 -110 (2*) L
#167 Arkansas +9 -110 (3*) W
#171 North Carolina/Clemson UNDER 67.5 -110 (2*) L
#179 Duke +7 -120 (3*) L
#185 Cincinnati/Ohio State UNDER 62.5 -110 (2*) L
#186 Ohio State -17 -105 (2*) W
#194 Louisiana-Monroe -14 -110 (2*) L
#202 Nebraska -21 -110 (2*) W
#205 Nevada -5 -110 (2*) W
#205 Nevada/San Jose State UNDER 53 -110 (2*) W

Sunday, September 28th:
Packers -1.5 -110 (2*) W
Packers/Bears UNDER 51-104 (2*) L
Titans +7.5 -115 (2*) L
Ravens -3 -120 (2*) W
Jets +1.5 -103 (3*) L
Eagles +4.5 -105 (1.5*) L & Eagles +190 (0.5*) L
Eagles/49ers UNDER 50 -105 (2*) W
Saints/Cowboys OVER 54 -105 (2*) W

Monday, September 29th:
Chiefs -3 -115 (4*) W & +135 (1*) W


CFB This Week: 10-8 for +1 unit
NFL This Week: 6-4 for +5.805 units

Week 4 Plays

Thursday, September 18th:
Kansas State +9 -105 (2*) W

Friday, September 19th:
PASS

Saturday, September 20th:
#311 Marshall/Akron UNDER 61.5 -110 (2*) L
#315 Ball State/Toledo UNDER 65.5 -110 (2*) W
#329 Army -2.5 -115 (2*) L
#331 North Carolina +115 (2*) L
#344 Colorado -7 -110 (4*) W
#345 Middle Tenn State/Memphis UNDER 63 -110 (2*) W
#350 Appalachian State/Southern Miss UNDER 60.5 -110 (2*) W
#351 Georgia Southern +3 -122 (2*) W
#351 Georgia Southern/South Alabama OVER 58.5 -110 (2*) L
#352 South Alabama +3 -105 (2*) L
#366 Florida State -10.5 -105 (2*) L
#379 Mississippi State +9.5 -110 (2*) W
#382 Arkansas -13.5 -105 (2*) W
#386 New Mexico State +3.5 -110 (2*) W
#390 West Virginia +7.5 -110 (2*) L
#394 Boise State -17 -110 (3*) W

Sunday, September 21st:
Cowboys -1 -109 (3*) W
Redskins +6 -110 (4*)W & +220 (1*) L
Giants -119 (2*) W
Ravens -2 -104 (2*) PUSH
Packers +3 -140 (1.5*) L & +122 (0.5*) L
49ers -3 -109 (2*) L
Broncos/Seahawks OVER 48 -108 (2*) L
Chiefs +3.5 -109 (3*) W & +167 (1*) W
Vikings +3.5 2nd Half -110 (2*) L


Monday, September 22nd:
Bears +3 -119 (3*) W & +132 (1*) W
Bears/Jets UNDER 45.5 -105 (2*) L


CFB: 10-7 for +7.9 units
NFL: 5-5 for +5.75 units

Week 3 Plays

Thursday, September 11th:
Steelers/Ravens OVER 44 -106 (2*) L

Friday, September 12th:
#108 Cincinnati -11 -110 (2*) W

Saturday, September 13th:
#111 Indiana -7 -110 (3*) L
#114 Marshall -20.5 -110 (3*) W
#116 UCF/Missouri OVER 54 -111 (2*) L
#126 East Carolina/Virginia Tech UNDER 54 -107 (2*) W
#128 Central Michigan +7 -130 (3*) L & +210 (1*) L
#128 Central Michigan/Syracuse UNDER 52 -108 (2*) W
#133 Georgia Southern +18 -110 (2*) W
#135 Iowa State +10.5 -110 (2*) W
#142 Louisville/Virginia UNDER 48.5 -107 (2*) W
#153 Arkansas/Texas Tech OVER 33.5 -115 1st Half (2*) W
#160 Mississippi -27.5 -110 (2*) W
#174 FAU PK -110 (2*) W
#184 Texas State +10.5 -110 (4*) L
#188 UTEP -10 -110 (2*) W
#196 Rice/Texas A&M UNDER 72 -110 (2*) W

Sunday, September 14th:
Bills -1 -105 (4*) W
Jaguars +6 -109 (2*) L
Cowboys +3.5 -109 (1.5*) W & +163 (0.5*) W
Giants +1.5 -101 (2*) L
Buccaneers -5.5 -109 (2*) L
Chargers +5 -109 (4*) W & +213 (1*) W
Seahawks/Chargers OVER 44 -108 (2*) W
Texans -2.5 -125 (2*) W
Texans/Raiders UNDER 40 -105 (2*) L
Chiefs +11.5 -103 (2*) W

Monday, September 15th:
PASS

CFB: 12-4 for +10.18 units
NFL: 6-5 for + 7.845 units

Week 2 Plays

I've placed two NFL Futures wagers to win the Super Bowl:
Packers +1150 (1*)
Colts +2539 (1*)

Thursday, September 4th:
#302 USTA +7 -115 (2*) W
Packers/Seahawks UNDER 47 -108 (2*) L

Friday, September 5th:
PASS

Saturday, September 6th:
#320 Army -3 -115 (2*) W
#322 Toledo +3.5 -110 (2*) L
#324 Temple +3 +100 (2*) L
#326 Tennessee -16.5 -105 (2*) L
#327 Western Kentucky +5 -102 (2*) L & +175 (1*) L
#335 South Alabama -2.5 -115 (2*) W
#338 Utah -13 -107 (3*) W
#342 Penn State -14 -105 (2*) W
#344 Kentucky -13 -110 (3*) W
#360 New Mexico +23.5 -105 (2*) L
#369 Maryland -13 -110 (3*) L
#384 Wyoming +115 (2*) W

Sunday, September 7th:
Vikings/Rams UNDER 43 -105 (2*) W
Vikings +3 -110 (1.5*) W & Vikings +140 (0.5*) W
Steelers -6.5 -108 (3*) L
Eagles -10 -108 (2*) W
Bengals +2 -106 (1.5*) W & Bengals +112 (0.5*) W
Texans -3 -120 (2*) W
Bucs -2.5 -110 (3*) L
49ers/Cowboys OVER 51 -105 (2*) L
Broncos -7.5 -109 (2*) L

Monday, September 8th:
Lions -6.5 -107 (2*) W
Cardinals -2.5 -125 (2*) L

CFB: 7-6 for +1.56 units
NFL: 6-6 for  -3.22 units

Week 1 Plays

Here we go...

Thursday, August 28th:
#134 South Carolina TT OVER 35.5 -110 (2*) L
#136 Louisiana-Monroe -125 (2*) W
#141 Temple +13.5 -106 (2*) W

Friday, August 29th:
#150 Colorado -3 -105 (2*) L
#151 UTSA +10.5 -109 (1.5*) W & UTSA +355 (0.5*) W

Saturday, August 30th:
#157 Ohio State -15 -105 (2*) W
#159 UCLA -20.5 -105 (2*) L
#173 Marshall -24 -105 (2*) L
#182 Georgia -7.5 -102 (4*) W
#197 FSU -17.5 -107 (3*) L
#204 Wisconsin/LSU OVER 49 -110 (2*) W
#328 Kentucky -20.5 -110 (2*) W

Sunday, August 31st:
#205 Utah State/Tennessee UNDER 51.5 -108 (2*) W
#208 Baylor -33.5 -110 (2*) W

Monday, September 1st:
PASS

9-5 for +9.565 units

2014 College Win Totals

If you put in the off-season work of researching every FBS team, you should be able to spot some money making opportunities by betting season win totals. I cap my wagers on single plays at -175 and will parlay several heavily juiced numbers. With less than two weeks before kickoff, let's take a look at the 9 win total bets I've placed for this season:

UNDERS:

Florida State UNDER 11.5 -115 @Bookmaker (1 unit) LOSS - First off, this team will be wearing a target on their backs all season, and though they have a somewhat favorable schedule and will likely be double digit favorites all year, I expect them to drop at least one game.  Clemson, NC State, Louisville, Miami, or Florida are the likely upset suspects.  The loss of defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt to Georgia plays another factor in my decision to go against a back to back perfect FSU season.

Auburn UNDER 9.5 -150 @5Dimes (0.5 units) $$WINNER$$ - If you read my article on this year's National Championship Futures, you'll remember that I'm down on Auburn this season. They caught lightning in a bottle last year and seemed to finish the season with a horseshoe up their collective asses.  The schedule is gonna be rough with road games at Kansas State, Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama.

Boston College UNDER 5 -160 @Bookmaker (0.5 units) LOSS - I don't like BC.  They are one of those teams that I can never figure out. Bet 'em they lose; bet against and they win.  But one thing I know for sure is that they're gonna be in a rebuilding year.  They've lost 2 guys that accounted for nearly 70% of their offense, bring back only 9 returning starters, and have Florida transfer Tyler Murphy under center, and that dude's a stiff.  I predict wins over UMass, and Maine, with 50/50s over Colorado State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

OVERS:

Massachusetts OVER 1.5 -135 @5Dimes (1 unit) $$WINNER$$ - The new coach is a familiar face in Amherst with Mark Whipple returning after 11 years to retake the reigns of the UMASS squad.  And he's brought in his former DC Tom Masella with him.  The last time Whipple took over here in '98, he turned a 2-9 team into a 12-3 powerhouse and 1-AA champion in one season.  All we need is for him to double last year's win total from 1 to 2.

Virginia Tech OVER 8 -115 @5Dimes (1 unit) LOSS - Coming off an 8 win season and I expect them to be better this year.  They should sweep their home schedule and just need to pick up 2 wins in 5 road contests against Ohio State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, and Wake Forest.  Though they had a lackluster offense last year, 9 of those starters return and that experience should increase the point production and give them a shot at winning the Coastal division.

Georgia OVER 9.5 -106 @Bookmaker (0.5 units) LOSS - As with Auburn, if you read my article on this year's National Championship Futures, you'll know that I'm big on Georgia this year. Injuries destroyed them last season, but may have been a blessing as many of the backups saw playing time including this year's QB Hutson Mason.  They've brought in former FSU DC Jeremy Pruitt, have 14 returning starters, and should be favored in every game except for South Carolina, a very winnable matchup.

Mississippi State OVER 7 -155 @5Dimes (0.5 units) $$WINNER$$ - If not for the high juice, this would warrant a 1 unit play.  Miss St returns 8 starters on each side of the ball to a team that won 6 regular season games last year. With four easy OOC matchups, the Bulldogs just need to add one victory to last year's 3-5 conference record.  They'll have Texas A&M and Auburn at home and Vanderbilt replaces South Carolina on the schedule.  A lot of potential here.

PARLAYS @5Dimes (Too juiced to play singularly):

Houston OVER 8.5 &
Iowa OVER 8 &
Florida OVER 6.5 LOSS (UF Season Total was cancelled due to Idaho game) +177 (0.5 units)

Akron OVER 5.5 &
TCU OVER 6.5 &
Memphis OVER 4.5 +123 LOSS (0.5 units)

Good luck!
If you have any feedback, leave me a comment below.
Follow me on Twitter @FLChadFootball

Handicapping the 2014 Heisman Race

With less than two months before the start of the college football season (8/27 Abilene Christian at Georgia State - shut up, it still counts), I'd like to share the players that I feel have a great opportunity to bring home the bronze statue.  But before I list their names, I'm going to show you how I came up with my list.

First, a wide receiver hasn't won the Heisman since Desmond Howard in 1991, so with apologies to Baylor's Antwan Goodley and Alabama's Amari Cooper, I've thrown out the WRs.

Second, defense may win championships, but they don't win the Heisman, unless they also return kicks or play both sides of the ball.  Only 3 defensive players have won the prize, and all have also played offense.  So I've removed all "strictly" defensive players.

Third, only 2 running backs have won the trophy in the last 13 years, and just 7 in the last 25 years.  Of those 7, only Alabama's Mark Ingram in 2009 represented the SEC, and his win over Stanford's Toby Gerhart was the closest race in Heisman history.  Hard to put up big numbers when you face SEC defenses week in and week out.  So Georgia's Todd Gurley, South Carolina's Mike Davis, and the rest of the SEC backs are out.

Fourth, quarterbacks have won 6 of the last 7 races, and 12 of the last 13.  Interesting to note that 4 of the last 5 QBs chosen were dual-threat scramblers.

Fifth, BYU's Ty Detmer in 1990 was the last Heisman Trophy winner that didn't come from the Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC).  Ironically, the best odds this season on a non-power 5 player is BYU's QB Taysom Hill.

Finally, You have to go all the way back to the 1969 winner, 6-4 Oklahoma's Steve Owens, to find a player that came from a team with more than 3 losses.  Every winner over the last 44 years has come from a 9-3 or better team.

So for my Heisman winners, I looked at Power 5 QBs, and RBs from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12.  And of that group, I only went with players who I feel are on 9-3 or better teams.  With all that considered, I present my top contenders to win the 2014 Heisman Trophy.

My Two Faves:

QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon +725 at 5Dimes (1 unit) - Mariota was well on his way to a Heisman win last season before suffering a knee injury against Stanford.  That injury slowed the speedy QB and forced him to make some ill-advised throws toward the end of the season.  Prior to the injury, he averaged 2.5 touchdowns passing/game with no interceptions, 9.1 yards/carry rushing and scored 9 times on the ground.  Post-injury, he averaged 2 TDs passing/game with 4 INTs, 5.1 yards/carry with no rushing TDs.  He will be 100% this fall, and I expect him to put up some ridiculous video game numbers.

QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State +800 at 5Dimes (1 unit) - A back-to-back Big Ten Player of the Year, Miller comes into the season with a 22-2 record as a starter over the last two years (26-8 career).  Last year, he overcame an early season injury to throw for over 2,000 yards while adding over 1,000 on the ground and 34 total TDs with only 7 picks.  I have Ohio State as one of the teams I like the win the championship, and Miller is one of the big reasons.  And with Miller running the zone read in the red zone, I anticipate some big numbers from him in his third season heading  head coach Urban Meyer's offense.

My Three Underdogs:

QB Nick Marshall, Auburn +2000 at 5Dimes (1/2 unit) - Marshall had similar numbers to Braxton last year, with 1,976 yards through the air and an additional 1,068 on the ground with 26 total TDs and 6 INTs.  Auburn's receiving core returns intact along with 4 returning starters on the line and the running back position is fully stocked.  This will be HC Gus Malzahn's first opportunity to coach a returning starter at QB, and he has stated that Marshall had a sharp spring, hitting his progressions much quicker than last year.  If Malzahn opens the playbook a bit more, Marshall's name very well could be called onstage in NYC.

QB Trevor Knight, Oklahoma +2600 at 5Dimes (1/2 unit) - Knight rebounded from early season struggles his freshmen year to end the year by pushing Alabama around in the Sugar Bowl last year.  Another dual-threat QB, he is surrounded by playmakers on a potential national championship team.  The only thing keeping me from listing him as a favorite is the brutal schedule the Sooners have this year.  I would not be surprised by a 4,000 combined yards/35 combined TD campaign.

RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin +2700 at 5Dimes (1/2 unit) - This number seems too high.  Gordon split carries with James White last season and still managed to rush for 1,609 yards and 12TDs on 206 carries, while averaging 7.81 yards/carry (2nd in the nation). As the lone back this year, he may see around 280-320 carries and has the potential to hit the 2000-yard threshold.  The Badgers also have one of the softest schedules in the Big Ten (No OSU, Michigan State, or Penn State) and the back half of their season is a virtual cakewalk, and November is a great time to pad those stats.

My Four Sleepers:

RB Duke Johnson, Miami +3800 at 5Dimes - Johnson was on pace for a 1,400-yard season in his sophomore year before suffering a season ending injury vs FSU.  He's averaged 6.6 yards/carry his first two seasons, and could potentially get 1,600 yards and 14 TDs.

QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State +6000 at 5Dimes - With 27 career starts under his belt, the redshirt senior could finish the season as the best statistical QB in Sun Devil history.  Kelly had 4,243 total yards and 37 total TDs in HC Todd Graham's third year.  Oh yeah, he can also punt.  Though the defense will rebuild, last year's 10th-ranked scoring offense is loaded with talent and if the Sun Devils can stay near the top of the Pac-12 South, I anticipate huge numbers for Kelly.

QB Matt Johnson, Bowling Green +8000 at 5Dimes - Though not in a power 5 conference, he threw for 3,467 yards and 25 TDs last year in the MAC and new coach Dino Babers worked with Robert Griffin III at Baylor in 2011 and Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois last year.  NIU's Jordan Lynch made it to NYC last year and while Johnson won't sniff the 1920 yards Lynch gained on the ground in '13, he is quite mobile and should have over 4000 yards of total offense this fall.

CB Jabrill Peppers, Michigan (NO LINE) - The true freshman looks to start the season at nicelkback, and HC Brady Hoke has already revealed his plans to have Peppers return kicks.  OC Doug Nussmeier wants to include him in the offense as well.  He played QB, WR, RB, CB, FS, SS, and KR/PR in high school, where he was a two-time USA Today All American and track champion.  Could the speedy youngster become the third straight freshman to win the trophy?

Have I left one of your favorites off of my list?  Any dark horses you like?  Leave me a comment below.