Saturday, August 21, 2010

2010 College Football Futures...GET SUM!!

     With college football kicking off in just under two weeks, I present the first of many upcoming weekly football selection blogs.  Though these are merely a handful of futures, I felt they were worth sharing, especially since I went 5-1 for +8.15 units last season in my CFB futures:

Miami OVER 8 wins +190 (2 units) - $$WINNER$$
Florida OVER 11 wins -105 (2 units) - $$WINNER$$
LSU OVER 8.5 wins +100 (1 unit) - $$WINNER$$
Ole Miss UNDER 9 wins +100 (1 unit) - $$WINNER$$
Alabama OVER 9.5 wins +145 (1 unit) - $$WINNER$$
Georgia OVER 8.5 wins -110 (1 unit) - LOSER

     I only looked at the SEC and all the teams in Florida last year, as it takes a shitload of time to research these squads.  I didn't find nearly the type of of value that I did with some of these wagers last year (Miami and Bama were plus-money goodness) so I did spend more time this season researching teams from the Big 12, Big East, and ACC among others (along with some small action shots on BCS title and Heisman Trophy).  

Washington UNDER 6.5 wins -130 (2 units) $$WINNER$$
Does anyone really think that the Huskies are a 7 win team?  Cuz I just don't see it.  Sure, Jake Locker is the best QB in the Pac-10 and they've returned an bunch of skill players on offense, but their defense is shit and would be considered the worst in the Pac-10 if not for in-state rival and abortion that is Washington State.  The Huskies schedule this season looks just as tough as last year's when then went 5-7.  They kickoff the season at BYU, then come home to face Syracuse, Nebraska, and USC.  At best, AT BEST, they win 2 of those games, but it's likelier that they go 1-3.  Sure, they have two weeks to prepare for USC, but that ain't gonna matter.  Then their next 6 are homes games against AZ St, ORE St, Stanford, and UCLA, and away games at Arizona and Stanford before another break.  At best, they split these 6.  Finally they finish the last 2 on the road, against Cal and Wash St.  They can handle Wazzu, IMO, cuz Wazzu is horrible, but Cal's better than the Huskies and they're gonna be looking for some revenge after getting flat-out embarrassed in the season finale by Washington last year, losing 42-10.  Best case scenario is Washington going 6-6, but I think they're still just a 5-win team and will be jumping out of high-rises during bowl season.

Texas A&M OVER 7 wins -125 (2 units) $$WINNER$$
I think the Aggies are gonna surprise a lot of people this season, much like the Hurricanes did last year.  Not only should they have the top offense in the Big 12, but they should finish near the top of all the FBS teams.  They do have a mediocre defense, but it should be steady enough to at least split in conference play.  QB Jerrod Johnson has plenty of reliable targets to toss it to down the sidelines and out of the backfield, and he's also athletic enough to tuck it and run if no one's open.  They also have an extremely favorable schedule and can potentially make some noise in the Big 12 this year.  They'll begin the season 3-0 with home games against Stephen F. Austin, FIU, and Lousiana Tech before getting 12 days to prepare to go to Okie St for a Thursday night game.  This is the first of what should many high-scoring, defense-be-damned, back-and-forth games for the Aggies this year, and in those situations, anything can happen.  So they have the Cowboys in Okie (50/50 chance), then face the Razorbacks in Dallas (40-60 chance, and possible final score) before the final 7 conference games.  The next 6 games consist of two road wins at Kansas and Baylor, and 4 home games against Mizzou, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Nebraska - all tough opponents, but all winnable at home (except maybe for Oklahoma).  I think they can split these 4 games, before finishing the season at Texas with a probable loss.  I'd be shocked if the Aggies don't finish better than 7-5 (which would be a push) since they're at least an 8-win team with that explosive offense.

Boise State OVER 11 wins +130 (1.5 units) PUSH
Another play on a high-scoring offensive team, and another play where my worst case scenario has this as a push, but I believe the Broncos will finish with another undefeated regular season record.  QB Kellen Moore is an absolute stud (2nd in passer efficiency and a 39/3 TD/INT ration - SICK), and they have great receivers in Austin Pettis and Titus Young.  Add in 2 RBs that combined for almost 2000 yards last year and a defense that finished 14th in the country in total yards allowed, while giving up only 17.1 pts/game - a defense which returns 10 starters - and you have a recipe for domination.  The easy part of the schedule consists of Wyoming, New Mexico St, Toledo, San Jose St, Louisian Tech, Hawaii, Idaho, Fresno St, Nevada, and Utah St.  It doesn't matter who's home or away in those game, that's 10 wins.  So that leaves us with Virginia Tech and Oregon State.  The Broncos are better than the Beavers and the game is being played on the Smurf Turf where Boise hasn't lost a game since '05.  So that's win #11.  Finally we have the Hokies, which is the season opener and is being played at neutral site FedEx Field in Maryland - though it'll likely be filled with the Hokie faithful and douchebag Redskins fans.  Tech is gonna be good this year, no doubt about it, but are they good enough?  Maybe.  But maybe not.  Boise coach Chris Peterson turned down several job offers in the offseason including the Souther Cal job (!) to stay and win a championship in the potato state.  I think he has a helluva good chance this year.

Georgia OVER 8.5 wins -115 (1.5 units) LO$$
I had faith in them last season to win at least 9 games, but they only won 8 - how the fuck do you lose to Kentucky at home?!  FUCKING KENTUCKY!  IT'S A FUCKING BASKETBALL SCHOOL FOR FUCKS SAKE! Anywho, I'm back on the Bulldog bandwagon because they're better than they were last year.  They still lack a player of note outside or WR A.J. Green, but they have one of college football's best coach in Mark Richt.  This dude does more with less than those paint-slinging queens on (Insert hip new home improvement show her).  Not only do they have a soft schedule, but with the Gators looking at a 9-10 win season, the 'Dawgs are the ONLY other team in the division with shot at playing in the SEC title game.  Allright, they'll win the first game against Louisiana-Lafayette, followed by travel to South Carolina and then the Razorbacks at home...split right there.  Then they have 5 weeks of turds - @Miss St, @Colorado, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and @Kentucky - 5 wins.  Then they have the Gators in JAX (50/50 shot), Idaho St (W), @Auburn (Loss), and then have two weeks t prepare to demolish a shitty Georgia Tech squad.  Georgia should have a 9-3 year, and 10 wins wouldn't surprise me, neither would 12.

Boston College OVER 7.5 wins -130 (1.5 units) LO$$
The chalk is the only reason I'm not playing this one higher.  If you follow college football at all, take a quick look at the Eagles' schedule and tell me where the 5 losses will come from...cuz it just ain't there.  Weber and Kent are nice early season scrimmages, then a break.  Then they have 4 out of 5 home games that are winnable (ND,Maryland, Clemson, Virginia - with Virginia Tech being the toughest matchup).  The roadies aren't too bad either.  Sure they have to pack bags for Florida St and Wake Forest, but they also get free rides against NC St, Duke, and Maryland.  8 win least.

     I have 4 more win totals that are for 1 unit apiece, but I'm not gonna waste my time trying to convince you to play them with big writeups cuz it just isn't worth the effort, considering that most of my gambling brethren won't bother tying up money in futures anyways.  That being said, here's the rest:  

LSU OVER 8 wins -105 (1 unit) $$WINNER$$

North Carolina OVER 8 wins +105 (1 unit) LO$$

Pittsburgh OVER 8 wins +100 (1 unit) LO$$

Texas Tech OVER 8 wins +110 (1 unit) LO$$


Boise State to win BCS Championship +1000 (1/2 unit) LO$$
Georgia to win BCS Championship +4500 (1/4 unit) LO$$ - I figure that either Georgia, Florida, or Bama will win the SEC title game, and the winner of that tends to play for the BCS Championship.  If the Bulldogs can beat the Gators in Jacksonville, they'll represent the East.  I'm not convinced that Bama is the best in the country, especially with only 3 returning starters on defense and I think the SEC West is gonna be wide open this year, with LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Arky all having 9-10 win potential.  I feel it's worth a very small shot.

Ryan Mallett to win Heisman Trophy +1200 (1/2 unit) LO$$ - The dude is 6'7" 240lbs with a FUCKING cannon for an arm.  The Hogs return 9 starters from last season's 20th ranked offense and the team's top 5 receivers from last year - a receiving corps that may be the best in the nation.  Mallett threw for 30 TDs and nearly 3700 yards last year, and they have a MUCH softer schedule this year.  He has 40 TD and +4000 yard potential, and if he can hit those numbers in the SEC, he should be the frontrunner.
Jacquizz Rodgers to win Heisman Trophy +2300 (1/4 unit) LO$$ - This is one badass midget.  He averaged nearly 7 yds/carry last year - 1440 yards total - caught 78 balls out of the backfield, and is faster than Usain Bolt on cocaine.  He'll also be getting more looks in the wildcat formation this year.  He had 352 touches last year, and providing he stays healthy, should top that number this year.  He's definitely worth a small play at these long odds.

3-5 for -1.68 units
So that's it for the CFB preseason.  Make sure to come back on September 2nd when I'll begin listing my Week 1 plays.  If you have questions or comments, leave em below, or you can fire me off an email on that clicky thing off to the right hand side of the page. 

Gentlemen...start your boners...