Friday, August 15, 2014

2014 College Win Totals

If you put in the off-season work of researching every FBS team, you should be able to spot some money making opportunities by betting season win totals. I cap my wagers on single plays at -175 and will parlay several heavily juiced numbers. With less than two weeks before kickoff, let's take a look at the 9 win total bets I've placed for this season:


Florida State UNDER 11.5 -115 @Bookmaker (1 unit) LOSS - First off, this team will be wearing a target on their backs all season, and though they have a somewhat favorable schedule and will likely be double digit favorites all year, I expect them to drop at least one game.  Clemson, NC State, Louisville, Miami, or Florida are the likely upset suspects.  The loss of defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt to Georgia plays another factor in my decision to go against a back to back perfect FSU season.

Auburn UNDER 9.5 -150 @5Dimes (0.5 units) $$WINNER$$ - If you read my article on this year's National Championship Futures, you'll remember that I'm down on Auburn this season. They caught lightning in a bottle last year and seemed to finish the season with a horseshoe up their collective asses.  The schedule is gonna be rough with road games at Kansas State, Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama.

Boston College UNDER 5 -160 @Bookmaker (0.5 units) LOSS - I don't like BC.  They are one of those teams that I can never figure out. Bet 'em they lose; bet against and they win.  But one thing I know for sure is that they're gonna be in a rebuilding year.  They've lost 2 guys that accounted for nearly 70% of their offense, bring back only 9 returning starters, and have Florida transfer Tyler Murphy under center, and that dude's a stiff.  I predict wins over UMass, and Maine, with 50/50s over Colorado State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.


Massachusetts OVER 1.5 -135 @5Dimes (1 unit) $$WINNER$$ - The new coach is a familiar face in Amherst with Mark Whipple returning after 11 years to retake the reigns of the UMASS squad.  And he's brought in his former DC Tom Masella with him.  The last time Whipple took over here in '98, he turned a 2-9 team into a 12-3 powerhouse and 1-AA champion in one season.  All we need is for him to double last year's win total from 1 to 2.

Virginia Tech OVER 8 -115 @5Dimes (1 unit) LOSS - Coming off an 8 win season and I expect them to be better this year.  They should sweep their home schedule and just need to pick up 2 wins in 5 road contests against Ohio State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, and Wake Forest.  Though they had a lackluster offense last year, 9 of those starters return and that experience should increase the point production and give them a shot at winning the Coastal division.

Georgia OVER 9.5 -106 @Bookmaker (0.5 units) LOSS - As with Auburn, if you read my article on this year's National Championship Futures, you'll know that I'm big on Georgia this year. Injuries destroyed them last season, but may have been a blessing as many of the backups saw playing time including this year's QB Hutson Mason.  They've brought in former FSU DC Jeremy Pruitt, have 14 returning starters, and should be favored in every game except for South Carolina, a very winnable matchup.

Mississippi State OVER 7 -155 @5Dimes (0.5 units) $$WINNER$$ - If not for the high juice, this would warrant a 1 unit play.  Miss St returns 8 starters on each side of the ball to a team that won 6 regular season games last year. With four easy OOC matchups, the Bulldogs just need to add one victory to last year's 3-5 conference record.  They'll have Texas A&M and Auburn at home and Vanderbilt replaces South Carolina on the schedule.  A lot of potential here.

PARLAYS @5Dimes (Too juiced to play singularly):

Houston OVER 8.5 &
Iowa OVER 8 &
Florida OVER 6.5 LOSS (UF Season Total was cancelled due to Idaho game) +177 (0.5 units)

Akron OVER 5.5 &
TCU OVER 6.5 &
Memphis OVER 4.5 +123 LOSS (0.5 units)

Good luck!
If you have any feedback, leave me a comment below.
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